Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Highs around 82 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. Tropical Update Steve Shearer (freeride76) Wednesday, 26 April 2023. Surf Reports & Forecasts Australia Queensland Gold Coast Sunshine Coast Bargara Fraser Island North Stradbroke Island Agnes Water Yeppoon Muralug Island In the evening southwest winds were 50 kts solid over the Central South Pacific with 34 ft seas at 62S 166W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading from 35 kts Wed AM (2/23) over a large area filling the West Pacific with seas fading from 31 ft at 35N 169.25E. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm This day is looking like the lightest afternoon all week, so another session later in the day isnt a bad call. Detailed Surf Reports, 16-day Surf Forecasts, Surf Photos, Live Winds, Tides and Weather | Swellnet Premium ad-free surfcams, dawn surf reports, forecaster notes, long range surf forecasts. www.gidy.fr. My call is for 0.5" along much of the SB coast with some higher pockets; VC and LA coasts would run 0.25-0.5"; and OC and SD coasts should top out around 0.25". Target the mornings if youre planning on getting in the water, unless you can find a wind protected area. Weather models are quite diverged with the local winds, but right now the morning is looking the lightest, with a stronger west wind expected for the afternoon. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. 13 secondssubsiding to 9 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. In the afternoon light winds are forecast for North CA with northwest winds building to 10-15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/. A few more like it are on the surf radar, and I'll get to those in a sec. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. Alternatively, visit our basic swell maps of Pacific-Ocean where each view becomes a separate image. Swell Direction: 315 & 340 degrees, North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height. For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video. Today (2/24) the daily index was negative at -0.96 after peaking at +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. PZZ350-011600 This feature requires a Premium Membership. But a solid stream of modestly warming temps were along Ecuador and points west of there out to 160W. Southern CA: Dribbles on Mon (5/1) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). SST Anomaly Projections . Doubtful meaningful weather will result. This is a clear El Nino signal. If these combine with south swells then Malibu and Trestles will fire whereas places such as Rincon require a more northerly swell. 4 to 5 ft. PZZ376-011600 Something to monitor. 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc, https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html, http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/. 8. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. 1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with Kelvin Wave #2 in-flight and Kevin Wave #3 developing now. Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Good odds for swell radiating northeast towards the US West Coast, Central America and South America. waves 2 ft or less. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and lined up and clean with decent form but pretty soft. Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. The compact winds around the center may temper the size for other locations around the Pacific, but the storm's extra-long tail ensures there's a long run of swell. East winds up to 15 mph . Eglise Notre Dame. The other swell will be a selective but fun WNW groundswell for winter spots. The 7 day forecast has moderate east anomalies holding over the bulk of the KWGA to east of 150E till 5/3 then pushing east with modest west anomalies developing filling most of the KWGA by 5/3 and then getting strong over the for West Pacific on 5/5 wand holding through the last day of the model run on 5/7. Hawaii County Weather Forecast for April 26, 2023 Forecast (2/24) - Temps are to fall to -1.35 degs in May only to rise some to -1.15 degs in the July and holding beyond. And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. 48. Wind waves 2 ft or 13 Feb 2023 - Rent from people in Sceaux-du-Gtinais, France from 17/night. St. George CA out 10 nm US Dept of Commerce gusty north winds. Tuesday the 2nd is expected to run chest to head high at west facing breaks and waist to chest at south facing spots. 32. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). TUE NIGHT of more interest is swell pushing east originating from a broad system that developed just off the Kuril Islands Mon-Tues (2/22) producing 39 ft seas aimed east then dissipating before reaching the dateline. A gale started developing in the Southwest Pacific on Tues AM (4/18) with 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building. Sailing Weather - Marine Weather Forecasts for Sailors and Adventurers Tuesday the 16th into Wednesday the 17th could see yet another southern hemi ground swell, and we can see why it, and the ones before it, have high potential for surf-worthy status in SoCal (model by FNMOC): That jetstream model shows a nice, ideal, northward bend in the jetstream, guiding storms off Antarctica to direct their swell energy toward SoCal. Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table. Jetstream patterns make surf forecasts more predictable, so even though that's a 210-hour model, confidence is fairly high that we'll see something out of it. Models are still diverged, possible morning window, but at this time conditions look mostly unfavorable. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. Coastal waters from Florence Oregon to Point St. George California Beyond 72 hours the jet is to hold consolidated still reaching to 135W on Mon (2/28) while slowly weakening with winds down to 150 kts over the area from Japan to a point north of Hawaii but with something that looks like a weak trough developing over the Central Gulf of Alaska and another over the dateline, but weak is the operative word. 5/6/22 5/12/22: Lots of swell on the way this week! SUN NIGHT SW wind 5 to 15 kt. During the winter months, north-west swells propagate down from the Pacific with south-west swells dominating for the rest of the year. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. 1 ft in the afternoon. sgi_tile=1; No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time. NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level The High Seas Forecast for the South Pacific - National Weather Service Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii) Thursday, February 24, 2022 Swell fading Sun (5/7) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Chance of showers. W wind 5 kt. WED N wind 10 to 15 ktbacking to NW 5 kt late in the A small pocket of cooling was indicated over the Galapagos. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/23 indicates a huge very warm stream of 3+ degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific east to 100W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #1 erupting there into Ecuador. And another is to follow directly in it's wake Fri-Sun (5/7) with up 40 ft seas aimed north. TUE The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) Today's temps were up some at -1.367 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts). But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. A geomagnetic storm has the potential to produce aurora borealis over the Northern Hemisphere from Sunday evening into Monday morning, with some states along the US-Canadian border . National Weather Service Marine Forecast FZUS56 KSEW Showers likely. Swell NW Offshore Waters Forecasts description: Live Map: Washington and Oregon waters Updated: Mon, 01-May-2023 03:25:31 UTC California waters Updated: Mon, 01-May-2023 03:25:48 UTC: NAVTEX Coastal & Offshore Waters Forecasts description: Live Map: Astoria, OR: But we also have some very late season WNW groundswell mixing in during the same timeframe, and wintertime spots could get pretty fun. If this materializes, a long-period northwest swell arriving locally next Monday would result. Overview Glossary, Privacy Policy MetEye forecast wind and wave maps for Sydney waters Local & coastal waters forecasts via clickable map MetEye forecast wind and wave maps Observations Latest weather for the Sydney area Live wind map for New South Wales Latest coastal weather Coastal observations via clickable map Latest weather graphs via clickable map Radar Viewer Victoria NW wind 20 ktveering to N after midnight. veering to W in the eveningbacking to SW after midnight. Just a minor mix of south swell and NW windswell expected. 34.6 N / -76.2 . TONIGHT Just a little bit of south swell should be in the water by then. WED NIGHT Wind 10 to 12 ft at 13 secondssubsiding to 9 ft at 12 seconds in Sea temperatures vary from north to south, though not by much, with a high and low peaks of 23-29C or 73-84F. This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year. Boston, MA: Eastport, ME to South of New England. 100% advert-free browsing experience on any device, Unlimited advert-free HD webcam streaming, Long-range forecast experience without interuptions. Jetstream But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline. A return to a more normal cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases is starting now. MJO/ENSO Discussion This run of E swell gets better before it eases, with some flukey winds North San Diego was thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and clean and soft. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C. Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East, CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link. PACIFIC OVERVIEW 2023 Snow-Forecast.com | Privacy | Cookie Policy. Swell fading Mon (5/8) from 1.2 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell is tracking towards Hawaii. Swell holding Sat (5/6) at 2.2 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft). 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video. INSEE /Postal code. Surf Forecast: We use cookies to deliver a reliable and personalised Magicseaweed experience. Symbols shown on the map: Global-Pacific Surf Breaks, Tide Forecasts, Cities, Global-Pacific Ski Resorts, Live Wave Buoys, Live Webcams, Global-Pacific Wind Now, Temperature Now, Weather Now, Global-Pacific Swell at breaks, Rating at breaks. All Rights Reserved. In autumn and and early spring the Santa Ana wind brings weeks of offshore conditions. Waikiki long range surf forecast for swell, wind, tide and weather conditions updated multiple times daily. A series of southern hemi ground swells are being tracked from the 10th through the 17th. Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). The 90 day average was falling at +7.44 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. No cool anomalies were under the Pacific. NW wind swell though is a possibility on the long range, potentially up to head high; however, that is too far out to call right now from a close-proximity pattern. Global-Pacific wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status in the core of the KWGA on 2/26 while expanding in coverage to strong or more status holding through the end of the model run on 3/3. Marine High Seas Weather Bulletin - MetService New Zealand Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Swell W 5 to Swell fading some on Mon (5/8) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). but the storm's extra-long tail ensures there's a long run of swell. S wind 5 to 10 ktbecoming 10 kt. The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. 16. Swell DIrection: 306-309 degrees, North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (2/26) building to 3.4 ft @ 20 secs late (7.0 ft). The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 10 to Swell and SW 1 ft in the afternoon. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (4/27) in the Northern Gulf from 30 kts with seas fading from 20 ft at 53.5N 148W aimed east. E wind 5 ktveering to SW. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Monday is looking at onshores picking up early, reaching 15-20 mph in the afternoon, possibly to 25 mph late afternoon. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023. Surface Analysis Today's temps are rising again at +2.478 after dropping to +2.145 (4/25) having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Swell and S 1 ft in the afternoon. They are to warm to -0.438 degrees in April, then rising to -0.026 degs in July and hovering near 0,0 degs after that. See chart here - link. W wind 5 kt. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14). Wind waves 2 ft or less. Gidy (French pronunciation:[idi]) is a commune in the Loiret department in north-central France. PZZ300-290400. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. Satellite Imagery Also on Fri PM (4/28) a low pressure system started developing in association with trough over the Western Gulf producing 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas building. 2023 Snow-Forecast.com | Privacy | Cookie Policy. LA was running 58-59 in most spots, but the usually-cooler Cabrillo reported 55 yesterday. Sunday, April 30, 2023 sgi_tile=1; A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NAVTEX Coastal & Offshore Waters Forecasts. Swell NW 8 to 10 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of showers. afternoon. Tuesday should see early AM onshores to 10 mph with a southerly element, and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph, also with a southerly element. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). WED If anything, another pulse of +3 degs anomalies were building in the far West Pacific. Dribbles on Tues (3/1) holding at 4.4 ft @ 12 secs (5.0 ft). Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays, Sunday Apr. Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup! A warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today. Still some fun pulses to look forward to in the coming weeks for the South Pacific though. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. Swell Direction: 208 moving to 198 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti. In the evening 45 kts west winds were pushing east with seas building to 30 ft over a tiny area at 45.5N 157E aimed east and a long ways from Hawaii. Swell NW Global-Pacific wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. Within 5 nm of The South Shore had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with decent form. Saturday the 13th (building day) into Sunday the 14th could see the next southern hemisphere ground swell as models like the idea of another storm breaking off Antarctica in a similar position as the one for the middle of next week (model by FNMOC): Based on 144-hour models, this would bring chest+ sets to south facing breaks, angled from 195 with periods 16 seconds. Fetch and seas fading quickly after that. the week. Another gale is forecast developing in the Southeast Pacific Tues-Thurs (5/4) with up to 30 ft seas aimed north. Swell holding overnight then starting to fade first light Sat (2/26) from 6.6 ft @ 16 secs (10.5 ft). Thermal inversion will be absent thanks to the incoming cold air, but the onshore flow and moisture being drawn into SoCal will keep May Gray in place. The North Pacific is looking slow in the longer range as expected, so focus is shifted towards the South Pacific now. Global-Pacific Surf Map - Wind and Wave forecasts Fetch was fading Fri AM (4/28) from 35-40 kts from the south but stalling while building in coverage with 33 ft seas at 37S 156.5W aimed north. Find unique places to stay with local hosts in 191 countries. Size is expected to drop off a touch as both south swell and WNW swell slowly ease. Chance of rain 50 percent. 2 Finals Swell Coming From the North - Then It's All Down South. Lows 63 to 69. The combined forces of tight pressure- and temperature-gradients means winds along the coast will become strong, whipping up enough fetch to put most west facing breaks into wind swell sets running head high to a couple feet overhead Saturday the 25th, angled from the wind-swell-usual >300 and periods 10 seconds. Swell NW 8 to 9 ft at 9 seconds. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. More swell is looking likely out the back too, just nothing as big as what we are going to see this weekend. Winds Taking the GFS and to some degree the ECMWF into account, I'd call for drizzle Monday morning along the coast; light rain sometime Tuesday morning from LA north (dry in OC and SD); then mostly dry Wednesday day, but with rain Wednesday late afternoon or evening into Thursday for most of SoCal, spreading from north to south. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020. Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean): IRI Consensus Plume: The April 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.434 degs today and it's the second month above the La Nina threshold. Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. Amazing. That jet-bend on this model for the 8th-9th of this month, falls in an 8- to 9-day swell window for SoCal; hence, swell ETA by the 17th. Sea Level Anomalies: (2/17) Sea heights were neutral over the Equatorial Pacific except one small area of -5 cms anomalies between 95W to 85W and losing coverage quickly. Swell should be angled from around 305-315 with periods 14 seconds from the ground swell and 8-10 seconds from wind swell. SST Anomaly Projections Long Range Forecast Activity in the South and North Pacific look to die down a lot compared to our action-packed week of swell. midnight. Building 3205 Slight chance of showers. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors. The 30 day average was falling some at +9.31 after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less becoming 3 ft in But deep cool waters were along the immediate coast of Peru. Swell fading Sun (2/27) from 5.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (8.0 ft). Sceaux-du-Gtinais, France 2023: Best Places to Visit - Tripadvisor Wind This pattern isn't out of the realm of possibility by any means and holds medium to high potential; however, that is a 192-hour model so I need a few more days to see how this plays out. TUE NIGHT midnight. The cut-off low mentioned above will pinch off from the jetstream by Monday morning and spin around SoCal for a few days. The main swells in the water are going to be an overlapping pair of Southern Hemisphere swells, with the new one showing bigger sets late. Please enable JavaScript to access the following map views: All map types that you can enable here: Pacific-Ocean Colour Base Map, Wave Height, Wave Energy, Pacific-Ocean Swell 1 Energy, Swell 2 Energy, Windwave Energy, Pacific-Ocean Precipitation, Wind, Temperature, Pacific-Ocean Cloud Cover. chance of showers. Pacific Beach (PB) long range surf forecast for swell, wind, tide and weather conditions updated multiple times daily. CFSv2 Data The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast rising to +1.20 degs in July and +1.85 degs in Nov. The main story for most of the region will be the medium to locally good-sized run of Southern Hemisphere swell topping out this weekend. We will also see a new pulse in localized NW windswell which will add some consistency out there as well as helping out with the shape. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022. Oahu: Swell fading on Thurs AM (2/24) from 2.6 ft @ 12 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell NW 5 ft. That Wed-PM/Thu-AM rainband looks the heaviest with rain lasting a good part of the day Thursday, clearing Friday. and westward 60 nm. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Swell Direction: 188 degrees, Southern CA: Swell arriving early Fri (5/5) with period 18 secs early building to 1.9 ft @ 17 secs at sunset (3.0-3.5 ft). of showers through the day. La Nina Evaporating - Kelvin Wave Still Pushing East N wind 15 to 20 kt. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. CFSv2 Uncorrected Data Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. On Mon AM (2/21) the gale started plodding east producing westerly winds at 45 kts over a broad area with a core at 50-55 kts and seas building to 34 ft at 39.75N 152E aimed east. Level up to Premium to unlock this and other useful features: Long-range forecasts are available to DeepSwell Premium members. Surf is now declining back to tiny levels with just minor levels of background swell expected from tradewinds in the South Pacific- around a foot at the most exposed Burnett breaks, tiny elsewhere. Freezing level 1.500 ft rising to 4,000 ft during the heat of the day through 2/25, then building to 7-8.000 ft on 2/26-2/27 then building to 10,000 ft on 2/28 and holding. 6 ft and NW 3 to 4 ft. THU Conditions still dont look favorable but that could change. Wind waves 3 to 4 ftbuilding to 4 to 6 ft after Chance becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. Map overlays available for display: Pacific-Ocean Pressure, Wind. Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future. Hi-res Overview: (2/23) The magnitude of the core of the La Nina cool pool is gone.

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